TOWARDS 2030: REFRAMING ECONOMY, TECHNOLOGY AND TALENT IN AN AGE OF INTERREGNUM

As we approach 2030, the global economic order appears to be moving through what Antonio Gramsci once described as an interregnum, a period of structural instability where the old is dying, but the new is yet to take hold. Today, this transition is fundamentally structured by the accelerating force of digital transformation, as production systems, supply chains, financial infrastructures, and labour markets are being reorganised simultaneously. In this volatile environment, the central question for leadership is no longer whether change is occurring, but how businesses should strategically position themselves within it to survive and thrive.

DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION AS STRUCTURAL RECONFIGURATION

Digital transformation is not an isolated technological trend but a fundamental structural reconfiguration of global economic systems. Across industries, intelligent production systems, data-driven decision architectures, and platform-based business models are reshaping how value is created, distributed, and captured. While change itself is not new – every industrial revolution has transformed economic and social life – what distinguishes the current phase is its specific configuration. The speed of technological diffusion, the extension of automation into cognitive domains, and the convergence of digital and sustainability imperatives within an interconnected global system create an unprecedented complexity.

THE CENTRALITY OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

AI stands at the centre of this broader digital shift. While previous industrial revolutions transformed physical production, AI extends automation into cognitive organizational functions. As a general-purpose technology, AI reshapes strategy and redefines how competitive advantage is achieved and sustained in a global marketplace. Hence, to view AI solely through the lens of efficiency and short-term cost optimization is to underestimate its profound structural impact. As AI systems become embedded in diverse economic processes, questions of governance and ethics move to the forefront of the corporate and policy agenda.

GOVERNANCE AND GLOBAL COMPLIANCE

Regulatory frameworks are now evolving rapidly in response to these shifts. The European Union’s AI Act stands out as the most comprehensive attempt so far to establish global standards around transparency, accountability, and risk classification. For economies closely integrated with European markets, including Türkiye whose largest trading partner remains the EU, these developments carry direct and immediate implications. Turkish businesses operating across borders will increasingly need to align with these emerging compliance architectures to maintain market access.

THE TALENT ECOSYSTEM AND LABOUR MARKET TRANSFORMATION

At a deeper level, while digital transformation is effectively a cognitive upgrade for the economy, its potential is capped by the “digital fluency” of the workforce. Projections suggest that by 2030, up to 7.6 million employees in Türkiye may need to reskill or transition into new roles, while nearly 40 percent of core skills are expected to be redefined in an AI-integrated economy. Hence, the coming era will be shaped not only by technological competition, but by intensified competition for talent. Beyond this, this transformation is reshaping employment relations and redefining how work is valued. The emerging order carries both opportunity and asymmetry, raising questions not only of competitiveness, but of resilience and social cohesion. The pressing imperative is the construction of institutional and educational infrastructures capable of supporting adaptive and resilient workforces in increasingly complex human–machine systems.

TURKISH DIASPORA AS A STRATEGIC LEVER

In this context, the Turkish Diaspora emerges as a critical strategic asset. Turkish business leaders and professionals abroad are uniquely placed to bridge markets, align with emerging standards, and contribute to the shaping of new value chains. By leveraging the diaspora’s expertise in global tech hubs, Türkiye can foster a “brain circulation” that brings AI-driven best practices and innovation back to the domestic ecosystem. This global network provides Turkish businesses with the capacity to navigate international regulatory landscapes and secure a foothold in high-value segments of the emerging order. Indeed, in recent years, the successes of Turkish ventures across high technology, defence, financial technologies and deep-tech entrepreneurship, alongside Turkish professionals leading digital transformation processes within major global technology firms, stand as tangible indicators of this strategic potential.

DESIGNING THE FUTURE

In periods of structural transition, those who reposition themselves early become the architects of the emerging order. The challenge is no longer technological adoption alone, but strategic positioning within an evolving economic order. At the most fundamental level, this is not solely a corporate imperative. In a digitised economy, regulatory alignment and data governance is increasingly intersecting with broader questions of autonomy. The ability to generate, retain, and govern data within secure institutional frameworks is no longer simply a matter of competitiveness; it is a precondition for economic sovereignty. For Türkiye, this moment carries particular significance, as its domestic leaders and diaspora communities have the networks to contribute meaningfully to this materializing order. As 2030 approaches, the interregnum will not last indefinitely; the question is who will help define its final contours.