THE STRATEGIC THRESHOLD OF THE ENERGY TRANSITION: RISING COMPETITION IN CRITICAL MINERALS AND TÜRKİYE’S POSITION

The accelerating global energy transition is not limited to investments in renewable energy and technological progress; critical minerals—the essential inputs of this transition—are emerging as some of the most strategic elements of the new era. Used across a broad spectrum of applications—from electric vehicles and batteries to wind turbines and digital infrastructure— these minerals are vital not only for their economic value but also for national security and geopolitical influence.

The “Critical and Strategic Minerals Report,” prepared by the Türkiye Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, clearly outlines the scope and impact of this transformation. It defines critical minerals as essential inputs that carry a high risk of supply disruption and could disturb economic and industrial activities if supply is interrupted or prices fluctuate. It emphasizes that minerals such as lithium, copper, aluminum and nickel are particularly important for the energy transition.

DEMAND FOR CRITICAL MINERALS IS EXPECTED TO TRIPLE

International projections indicate that pressure in this sector will intensify further in the years ahead. As clean energy technologies become more widespread, demand for critical minerals is projected to grow several times over, turning the energy transition into a matter of resource management and supply security.

In this context, International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol describes critical minerals as “the new vulnerability in energy security.” It is believed that supply shocks in fossil fuel markets may increasingly be replaced by disruptions in mineral supply chains. Notably, the concentration of production of rare earth elements and battery metals in specific countries heightens global supply security risks.

On the geopolitical front, critical minerals are at the heart of a new power struggle. According to United Nations assessments, rising demand in this sector is intensifying strategic competition among nations and fostering a new “resource geopolitics.” Major economies such as the United States, the European Union and Japan are crafting comprehensive policies to diversify supply chains, move toward alternative sources, and establish strategic stockpiling mechanisms.

OF THE 37 CRITICAL MINERALS ASSESSED IN TÜRKİYE, 8 ARE “HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT”

From Türkiye’s perspective, the emerging landscape offers both substantial opportunities and risks that need careful management. The report highlights that 8 of the 37 critical minerals assessed for Türkiye are classified as “high-priority.” Minerals like lithium, copper, zinc and aluminum are of strategic importance for industrial production and foreign trade.

However, while Türkiye remains dependent on imports for certain minerals, it has strong global positions in materials such as boron and trona. This situation indicates that, with proper policies and investments, Türkiye could become a regional hub for the production and processing of critical minerals.

ADVANCED PROCESSING AND TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT ARE CRUCIAL

In the global competition, resource ownership alone is not enough; processing, refining, and advanced technology capabilities are equally vital. Currently, the highest value in the supply chain is generated not through raw material extraction but through advanced processing and technological development. Additionally, the extraction and processing of critical minerals are closely scrutinized for their environmental and social impacts. International organizations, led by the United Nations, are advocating for widespread responsible mining practices and greater transparency in investment processes.

Critical minerals are emerging as some of the most vital yet least visible components of the energy transition. Developments in this area are reshaping not only the energy sector but also the global economy and geopolitical relations. Türkiye’s role within this new landscape will become clearer based on the strategic policies it adopts and the comprehensive measures it pursues.