Assessment of 2019, Foresight For 2020 and 2023 Targets
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- 31 March 2020
2020 table is more hopeful and positive for the Turkish economy, which is again on the track of growth
Turkish economy went through hard times due to the volatility in the exchange rates in August 2018. Of course, we have been damaged during this process. However, we started to recover in 2019 thanks to the decisive stance, swift precautions and solid steps of our economy administration.
We grow 0.9% with the aid of precautions taken despite of the recession in our country’s economy in the last three quarters. Seasonally adjusted GDP increased 0.4% than the last quarter. We made quite a significant progress in terms of fight against inflation and current deficit. Furthermore, the fact that Central Bank resorted to a total discount of 1200 basis points on the policy interest conforming to the economic indicators, price stability of Turkish lira and the environment of trust clearly indicate the positive outlook of the economy.
The picture is more hopeful and more positive for Turkish economy starting its growth policy again regarding the year 2020. In other words, we can say that we are now able to see the light at the end of the tunnel after a depressive period which lasted shorter than expected. We foresee that the real investments in Turkey will increase, the employment will also increase and the negative effect of inflation will go down in the year 2020 thanks to this positive atmosphere. We also expect banking sector will drop the market interests to the levels which are much more reasonable in a short time. Because the real move to clear the way for Turkish business world is the decrease of loan interests.
In this regard, we regard the steps to be taken within 11th Development Plan and New Economic Program which will directly affect 2020 on-point. The solid steps accelerating Turkey to reach its 2023 targets will continue thanks to this approach which foresees development in every field, is based on the future of SMEs, tradespeople, farmer and employers. We think that we will enter a period in which the costs will decrease and the maturities will extend as of 2020.
We are very pleased of the fact that economic growth is supported with the stable stance in fiscal discipline, tax deductions, employment incentives and loan programs. Furthermore, the fact that importation changes in a way to support exportation with foreign trade policies applied rationally and the precautions taken attracts the attention as the pros of the new period in the economics and financial fields. It is quite pleasing that Turkey has evolved to an economy of current accounts surplus at this last stage.
We should reach to the target of dropping the inflation to the single digit levels permanently by realizing the policies provided for in New Economic Program. The drop in the risk premium especially with the decrease of inflation and the expansion of the secure area for the foreign capital inflows will determine the flow of external financing.
A growth of 5 percent is foreseen for Turkish economy in the year 2020. It is quite important for industrial production to play a locomotive role while the export-oriented growth is aimed for foreign trade. Therefore, we should keep working for the business world to constantly produce, to canalize to new markets and to take a part in the world trade with value added products.
As is known, 2023 targets of Turkey were reshaped within 11th Development Plan considering the conditions today’s economy and the changes in the markets with the global trade. According to the plan, the inflation is expected to drop to 5 percent level and per capital income is expected to exceed 12 thousand dollars in our 2023 targets. It is also an important thresh-old for the growth of Turkish economy which has a volume of 784 billion dollars as of 2018 to increase to 1 trillion 80 billion dollars in 2023. The vision of 2023 which indicates the 100th year of our Republic promises a future in which Turkey will become much more capable in global trade and will rank among the top 10 ruling economies of the world. We believe that we will reach to 2023 targets with the collaboration of public and private sector. We all have a responsibility for the future of Turkey and the sustainable targets set with strategic moves.
We should also work for a Turkey of current account surplus while we are dealing with the future taking the welfare level to a step forward with sustainable growth and development. We are in a new period which takes more share from the global trade thanks to products with high added value, includes technology in every process of production and comes to the forefront with its increasing competitive aspect.
We, the Foreign Economic Relations Board (DEİK) that works everywhere in the world for the future of Turkey constantly with the mission of “Business Diplomacy”, are focused on 2023 targets to build tomorrow today. In the upcoming period, DEİK will continue supporting each step which strengthens our financial activity and will be taken for our country’s and economy’s interest; we will also proceed representing our business world in the international arena with an effort which is greater than ever.
President of DEİK Nail Olpak