GLOBAL ECONOMY AND FINANCIAL MARKETS IN 2026

Dubbed “Trump 2.0”, the process that has rapidly increased uncertainty has left its mark on 2025. With Trump taking office, global uncertainty indices experienced a sharp jump. Although uncertainties in trade and economic policies have decreased somewhat over time, they remain above even pandemic levels, maintaining their historic peaks. More importantly, the global uncertainty index, which is largely influenced by non-economic factors, shows no signs of abating. Geopolitical risks and unpredictable diplomatic and international developments continue to seriously affect both the global economic outlook and financial markets. The events in Venezuela in the early days of the year clearly illustrate this situation.

Periods of high uncertainty are times when different scenarios can come to the fore at any moment. This situation allows financial markets to price transitions between scenarios quickly. In other words, volatility is one of the most significant consequences of uncertainty. Throughout 2025, we witnessed a period marked by extreme volatility across various assets, from stocks to commodities, currency pairs to cryptocurrencies.

The perception of uncertainty remains high, and there is no concrete reason for it to decline yet. Therefore, it would not be surprising if financial markets continue to experience volatility in 2026. Such periods tend to dampen appetite for direct investment. Indeed, the slowdown in international investment growth rates in recent years continued in 2025. While this does not mean that investments are not being made, the decline in the growth rate reflects a significant change in investor sentiment. It would not be surprising to see a similar trend in 2026; it appears that a “wait-andsee” policy will remain the main strategy for investors.

In 2025, we saw significant increases in customs duties alongside the trade war reignited by Trump. From April to January, customs duties fluctuated but rose on average, creating a scenario that would normally put pressure on global growth and push inflation upward. However, forecasts and leading indicators throughout the year show that these expectations have not fully materialized. Global growth is expected to show only a very slight slowdown, while inflation is expected to remain low. The average inflation forecast for G20 countries in 2025 is 2.2 percent, and 2.6 percent for 2026, excluding Türkiye and Argentina. OECD and IMF growth forecasts also hover around an average of 3 percent for 2024, 2025, and 2026. In summary, there is no recession on the horizon; global growth is maintaining its momentum, and inflation is close to targets in many developed countries. While inflation in the US is slightly above target at around 3 percent, deflationary trends are noticeable in China, the world’s second-largest economy.

The outlook for 2026 points to a scenario of relatively strong growth and low inflation. However, increased public spending in major economies such as China, Japan, France, and Italy, along with political and geopolitical developments, has begun to exert pressure on growth through various channels. The possibility that these factors will intensify pressure on global growth and trade from the second half of 2026 onwards should not be overlooked.

On the currency front, the US Supreme Court’s decisions on whether Trump’s tariffs can continue and on his authority to remove committee members are critically important. These decisions will be decisive in shaping both Trump’s power and the level of uncertainty. A decision that strengthens Trump could lead to a continuation of the US dollar’s depreciation seen throughout 2025.

We have indicated that 2026 will be a volatile year in financial markets. We expect volatility to continue across markets, from equities to commodities. However, strong growth and low inflation scenarios indicate that risk appetite in financial markets will not collapse permanently. Even if sharp corrections occur, we currently view the likelihood of a large-scale and lasting collapse as low. Rapid developments and pricing in the fields of artificial intelligence and technology bring to mind the possibility of a bubble; however, it is difficult to predict exactly when this will happen, but we do not believe it is happening at present. Our prediction is that risk appetite will generally continue in a scenario of sustained growth and low inflation, but that sharp fluctuations will become the new normal.

In an environment marked by such uncertainty and volatility, we believe that demand for precious metals like gold and silver will not decrease significantly, both from central banks that must act more institutionally and from investors seeking safe havens. This demand will ensure that prices maintain their upward trend, albeit with fluctuations. All of our predictions are based on the assumption that geopolitical risks will not increase significantly. However, we must also acknowledge that the likelihood of these risks materializing is not low. We must not forget that geopolitical developments of a magnitude that could disrupt the supply chain carry a high risk of leading the global economy into stagflation, characterized by both economic contraction and inflation.