RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES: WHAT TRUMP’S WIN MEANS FOR TURKIYE

As a U.S. ally, Türkiye is closely watching these shifting dynamics, given that Trump’s leadership could impact their relationship in complex ways

The U.S. election has ended with a decisive victory for Trump over Kamala Harris, marking a turning point with far-reaching global implications. As a U.S. ally, Türkiye is closely watching these shifting dynamics, given that Trump’s leadership could impact their relationship in complex ways. Key ongoing issues—such as Türkiye’s acquisition of the S-400 missile system, extradition requests for Fethullah Gülen and FETO members, and differing stances on PKK-affiliated groups— have previously strained relations between the two nations and remain central on the agenda. Additionally, Türkiye’s increasingly proactive and independent foreign policy has tested historical alliances and raised critical questions about the future trajectory of U.S.-Türkiye relations.

During Trump’s first term, one of the most memorable incidents was his threat to “ruin” Türkiye’s economy over the Pastor Andrew Brunson crisis. At the same time, President Erdoğan’s leadership diplomacy with President Trump, combined with former minister Berat Albayrak’s connections, yielded certain benefits during that period. While similar contentious moments and opportunities may persist, Trump’s re-election could introduce new dynamics, presenting both opportunities and challenges. Trump’s pragmatic approach to foreign policy may favor economic cooperation, but Türkiye must be prepared to balance its own goals within Trump’s direct, transactional framework.

CONFLICT RESOLUTION AND ECONOMIC STRATEGY: TÜRKİYE’S STRATEGIC POSITION IN U.S.-CHINA GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS

Trump’s approach to conflict prioritizes the efficient use of U.S. resources and a central focus on countering China, rather than aiming for full de-escalation. This strategy seeks to prevent the emergence of regional powers that could challenge U.S. dominance, maintaining controlled instability. While this approach doesn’t imply a U.S. withdrawal from conflict zones, it emphasizes cost-effective engagement. For Türkiye, this could be advantageous. Any de-escalation of conflicts close to its borders would serve its interests, from the Black Sea—where Russia and Ukraine remain locked in conflict— to Syria, Israel-Palestine tensions, and growing disputes and upcoming election in Iraq, particularly regarding Iranian influence and proxies. Türkiye stands to benefit from a more stabilized regional environment that aligns with its diplomatic efforts.

Trump has expressed a desire to end the Ukraine conflict swiftly, aiming for diplomatic negotiations with Russia. His tolerance for Russia, skepticism about U.S. spending on Ukraine, and strategic focus on China inform this stance. However, this does not imply a full U.S. withdrawal from Ukraine but rather a strategy of optimizing resources. Trump’s administration is likely to recalibrate involvement in Ukraine to prevent Russia or Europe from gaining excessive influence and mutual collaborations.

A similar approach could apply to the Israel-Palestine conflict, where Trump has consistently supported Israel while promoting normalization with Arab states through initiatives like the Abraham Accords. His inclination toward regional delegation may lead him to rely on local actors, such as Türkiye, for stability efforts. Notably, the Abraham Accords and the proposed India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC) could create interdependencies among regional states and Israel, ultimately enhancing Israel’s security. Beyond supporting Israel, Trump’s administration would likely focus on limiting the influence of Iranian proxies, maintaining sanctions, and containing Iran’s regional power. The Saudi-Iran détente brokered by China is another development that Trump might seek to counteract.

Reduced Iranian influence in Syria and Iraq could support Türkiye’s regional ambitions, especially regarding its Development Road Project, which aims to connect Asian economies particularly India to the Gulf, Iraq, Türkiye, and Europe, including supply chain and energy links. This project could align with U.S. interests by curtailing Iran’s influence in Iraq. The Kurdish issue remains a notable area of contention, particularly regarding the PYD, which Türkiye views as linked to the PKK. If the U.S. and Türkiye collaborate on initiatives like the Development Road Project, there could be opportunities for closer alignment and a more coordinated regional strategy.

A major factor in Trump’s re-election was his pledge to revitalize the economy, and his foreign policy is deeply rooted in economic priorities. For Türkiye, strategically aligning with U.S. economic interests could create pathways to improved relations under Trump’s leadership. However, Türkiye’s non-Western alliances and economic and security ties with Russia may complicate its relationship with the U.S. Trump is unlikely to favor Türkiye’s continued economic engagement with Russia, particularly with sanctions in place. Furthermore, Türkiye has expanded its economic relationship with China, though its trade volume with China is still modest compared to other regional players like Iran and Egypt. The developing Turkish-Chinese partnership, especially in the EV sector, may become a point of tension between the U.S. and Türkiye amid escalating U.S.-China rivalry.

Economic alignment with China also brings competition, particularly in Central Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. Turkish companies are increasingly competing with Chinese firms in these regions. Türkiye will need to navigate this balance carefully, maintaining economic ties with China while competing in specific sectors and preserving favorable relations with the U.S. This balancing act could present further challenges. Türkiye’s Development Road Project offers multiple advantages for U.S. interests. With Türkiye’s established infrastructure, this initiative could facilitate energy trade between Europe and the Middle East, reducing reliance on Russian resources. Additionally, the project could provide India with an alternative trade route, positioning it as a potential supply chain competitor to China. Stabilizing Iraq and reducing Iranian influence aligns with U.S. goals. Türkiye’s role in maintaining regional security could also lessen the financial and logistical burden on the U.S., offering mutual benefits for both countries.

Türkiye’s recent but unsuccessful bid to join BRICS underscores its pursuit of alternative alliances. The rejection reflects the influence the U.S. holds over global alliances, with news higlighting that India, likely acting under U.S. influence, opposed Türkiye’s membership. Trump may view Türkiye’s BRICS ambitions as a pragmatic approach rather than a shift away from the West, potentially leading to a more flexible U.S.-Türkiye relationship. Under Trump’s leadership, Türkiye could find increased flexibility in balancing its engagements with non-Western blocs while maintaining strong U.S. ties.

Trump’s transactional foreign policy could allow Türkiye greater freedom in multilateral organizations like the Turkic Council, exploring new avenues of influence while still upholding its NATO commitments, particularly against perceived threats like Russia and China. Trump’s victory presents Türkiye with both risks and opportunities. His pragmatic and transactional approach may facilitate stronger economic ties and expand Türkiye’s influence in regions like Central Asia and the Middle East. However, core disagreements, particularly concerning support for Kurdish forces, may persist, challenging Türkiye’s strategic priorities. Trump’s willingness to recalibrate U.S. involvement in the Ukraine conflict offers Türkiye a unique chance to act as a mediator, enhancing its diplomatic profile.

Coupled with the potential for expanded economic cooperation, Trump’s return to office could increase Türkiye’s strategic flexibility, positioning it as a central player in a multipolar world. For Türkiye, Trump’s presidency could mark a period of greater agency, enabling it to advance regional ambitions while navigating the complexities of a shifting global landscape. This shift presents both challenges and opportunities, allowing Türkiye to assert itself as a key geopolitical actor in an evolving international arena.