TRADE AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE WARS

Artificial intelligence (AI) technology stands out as a strategic tool with the potential to change global economic, social, and geopolitical balances. The technology war between the US and China marks the beginning of a new cold war with the participation of other countries. Türkiye, on the other hand, continues its preparations to take its place in this global competition by taking important steps in the field of digital transformation and artificial intelligence

As US President Donald Trump began his second term, we expected trade wars to intensify, as he had signaled this in his post-election statements. After taking office, he first imposed a 25 percent tariff on Canada and Mexico and a 10 percent tariff on China. Although the tariffs were postponed for Canada and Mexico for a month afterward, we anticipate that such trade wars will continue throughout 2025. At a time when we are talking about trade wars globally, China’s entry into the AI sector with DeepSeek has shifted attention from trade wars to technology wars.

With DeepSeek’s entry into the market, shares of US technology companies lost nearly $1 trillion in value. The most important reason for this is that the AI module announced by China is both much cheaper and performs better. The reason why technology companies in the US have begun to question the high costs of investing serious resources in this field is the availability of cheaper and better-performing AI technology. These developments in the field of AI can be considered the footsteps of a new global cold war based on technology, particularly between the US and China.

WHY IS AI SO IMPORTANT?

AI should not only be considered as a technology innovation. Countries that are at the forefront of AI technology are expected to gain a significant advantage in becoming a global power. This technology is expected to generate significant economic growth. According to estimates, investments in AI are expected to generate an economic size of over $15 trillion by 2030, which is approximately 15 times the economic size of Türkiye. In addition to the economic magnitude it will create, it is also expected to change geopolitical balances on a global scale and mediate social transformation, which shows that AI will be an important strategic tool beyond technology.

DATA SECURITY AND REGULATIONS IN THE AI WARS

The fact that AI has become an important tool of economic, social, and geopolitical transformation at the global level has brought risks as well as opportunities, which has brought the regulatory dimension of the issue to the agenda. In particular, the issue of personal data security has come to the fore, and based on this risk, some countries have banned the use of China’s AI application. Italy was the first country to ban the application on January 30.

Taiwan similarly banned its use in government agencies, citing security concerns. In the US, although there is no general ban, the state of Texas has banned its use on devices issued by government agencies. The US Navy has also banned the use of DeepSeek. However, the US is trying to compete with China by banning the export of stateof- the-art chips and the intermediate materials used in their production. In addition to these bans, Belgium, France, Ireland, and South Korea are also planning to launch investigations into how users’ personal data is managed.

PIONEER OF THE NEW COLD WAR The AI war may at first appear to be between the United States and China, but it actually reflects a multidimensional and complex balance of power. While the US is trying to have a say in this field with its investments in technology, China is developing AI applications that provide the same performance at low cost, while on the other hand, thanks to its population of 1.4 billion people, it can easily create huge databases to support AI algorithms. In addition to these two countries, India may also emerge as an important power in the coming period with its workforce in the software sector, in which it has invested for many years. For now, the European Union seems to be lagging behind this race.

However, it may have a say in the coming period with the importance it attaches to the regulatory side of the issue and its planned investment plan of 200 billion Euros. France in particular wants to take the lead in Europe on this issue. The AI Action Summit held in the French capital on February 10-11 with the participation of 60 countries could be a turning point for France in this sense.

CONCLUSION

At this point, it is considered that the AI wars between the US and China will be the beginning of a new cold war based on technology with the participation of other countries. On the one hand, countries will increase their investments in AI and develop their strategies, while on the other hand, they will not hesitate to take steps to prevent the strategies of rival countries. Throughout the cold war, while trying to maximize the opportunities that AI would bring, managing its risks will also be an important component of these steps. From this perspective, regulations are likely to be an important component of the cold war. Although the AI wars seem to be between the US, China, and the European Union, it is inevitable that all countries will soon be part of this war.

Therefore, it is important that other countries continue to work to adapt to the new world order. In our country, work in this context is progressing rapidly both in the public and private sectors. The update of the National AI Strategy Document and Action Plan covering the years 2021-2025 by the Digital Transformation Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Türkiye this year will be an important step forward. AI studies also occupy an important place in the agenda of the Digital Technologies Business Council established in 2022 within DEİK. The main objective of the Business Council is the globalization of our digital technologies ecosystem. In this context, AI will be an important field of activity of the Turkish private sector.