THE IMPACT OF TRUMP ADMINISTRATION TRADE POLICIES ON GLOBAL TRADE AND TÜRKİYE-US RELATIONS

The Trump administration’s protectionist and nationalist trade policies are reshaping global economic balances, creating both structural risks and opportunities for countries such as Türkiye

As of 2025, Donald Trump’s trade policies during his second term as president are causing serious fluctuations in the global trade. As in his first term, protectionist economic policies, increased customs tariffs, and criticism of multilateral trade agreements are the main approaches of his second term. These policies directly affect both global supply chains and the export-oriented growth models of developing countries.

At the heart of the Trump administration’s trade policies is an approach aimed at increasing domestic production and restricting imports under the slogan “Make America Great Again” (MAGA). In this context, additional customs duties are being imposed on various countries, particularly China; bilateral trade agreements are being renegotiated, and multilateral institutional structures (such as the World Trade Organization) are being questioned. This process is increasing uncertainty in the global economy, leading companies to postpone investment decisions, restructure their supply chains, and resulting in a decline in the volume of international trade.

In April, tariff rates between the US and China rose to unreasonable levels of 145%, but this was later replaced by a more reasonable environment for negotiations. After US President Trump granted a deadline of July 9 for negotiations, letters informing countries of new tariff rates began to be sent once this deadline expired. Within this framework, tariff rates of 25% were imposed on Kazakhstan, 40% on Myanmar, 30% on South Africa, 25% on Malaysia, 25% on Japan, 24% on South Korea, 30% on Libya, 30% on Algeria, 30% on Iraq, the Philippines 25%, Moldova 25%, Brazil 50%, Canada 35%, and the EU 30%. In the letters he sent, Trump also stated that if these rates are not reciprocated, the rates will be increased again. On the other hand, it has been reported that the US plans to impose general customs duties of 15% or 20% on most of its trading partners. While some countries have accepted the rates, others have indicated that they will respond in kind. Within this framework, it is expected that tariff wars will continue throughout the year, albeit with reduced intensity, and will remain a risk factor for global trade.

From Türkiye’s perspective, the US’s protectionist policies can be said to present both risks and opportunities. Türkiye has an export-driven growth model and is a strong player in the export of industrial products, particularly within the framework of the Customs Union with the European Union. However, due to US sanctions and high tariffs on China, some American companies are turning to production centers outside Asia, which creates opportunities for Türkiye as an “alternative producer country” in the supply chain. Türkiye’s competitive advantage is particularly striking in sectors such as textiles, automotive sub-industries, white goods, and electronics.

On the other hand, if China implements a strategy to compensate for the market share it will lose in the US, with other countries following the trade war between the US and China, it may display an aggressive attitude in markets where Türkiye is strong, particularly the EU, which will be a risk factor for us. On the other hand, our country may gain an advantage with its low tariff rates compared to countries subject to high tariffs imposed by the US.

On the other hand, economic relations between the US and Türkiye are sometimes shaped by political tensions. Restrictions in strategic areas, such as the defense industry, energy, and technology transfer, can negatively impact bilateral trade. The Trump administration sometimes sees Türkiye as engaging in “unfair trade practices” and imposes additional tariffs on products such as steel and aluminum. This increases costs for Turkish exporters and causes market losses in some sectors.

However, Türkiye’s trade volume with the US has increased in recent years. The US is one of the five largest markets for Türkiye’s exports. Defense, pharmaceuticals, textiles, ready-to-wear clothing, and food products are among the leading items. During Trump’s first term as president, there were statements of intent to increase bilateral trade volume to $100 billion, but some difficulties were encountered in achieving this goal. Customs tariffs, quotas, and technical barriers are the main obstacles to this goal.

On a global scale, Trump’s policies have had a direct impact, with the multilateral trading system being called into question and a growing trend toward regional bilateral agreements. This situation could lead to the fragmentation and deregulation of global trade. For medium-sized economies such as Türkiye, these developments mean greater exposure to external shocks and a need to gain flexibility in a less predictable trading environment.

For Türkiye to adapt to this new global order, it is crucial to further strengthen trade diplomacy at the macro level, participate more actively in bilateral and regional agreements, and diversify its export strategies. In addition, increasing the export of high-value-added and technology-oriented products will strengthen Türkiye’s competitiveness in global markets. At the micro level, our companies must simultaneously assess the risks and opportunities of the process and design their strategies accordingly.

In conclusion, while the Trump administration’s protectionist and nationalist trade policies are reshaping global economic balances, they also present both structural risks and opportunities for countries such as Türkiye. It is critical for Türkiye to consolidate its position by pursuing a flexible, forward-looking, and multifaceted foreign trade policy in this new period in order to increase its economic resilience.